August 4, 2022 - According to information from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and its July Report on Business, the US manufacturing sector continued expanding - though slightly less so in July - as new export orders and imports continued to grow more slowly.
The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, rose a solid 59.8 in July from June’s 58.6 for the 26th straight month of growth.
“Despite supply chain bottlenecks and a very strong dollar, said Ernie Goss, Ph.D., of Creighton University, “regional exports were healthy for July with a reading of 61.8, down slightly from June’s 62.5. On the other hand, imports sank to 45.5 from June’s 50.1.”
Midwest supply managers sent mixed messages in its June survey about a possible recession. Prof. Goss then reported that supply managers from the 9-state June survey highlights claimed the following:
One of five supply managers estimated the probability of a recession above 90%.
On average supply managers estimated the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months at 68.9%.
By contrast, more than half of supply managers expect business activity for their own firms to expand over the next six months.