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What the November Numbers are Saying About the Nation’s Economy

December 1, 2022 - According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) November Manufacturing Report On Business, the manufacturing sector continued to grow in October, with the overall economy achieving a 29th consecutive month of growth.

This despite that new export orders continued to slide to a reading of 46.5, down from 47.8 in October. Imports grew more slowly to 50.8, down slightly from 52.6 in October. Any number of 50 or above indicates growth.

The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state Heartland region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, fell below growth for the first time since early in the pandemic, May 2020.

Ernie Goss, PhD
Ernie Goss, PhD

“For the first time since the end of the 2020 recession in May 2020, Creighton’s monthly survey of manufacturing supply managers is flashing recession warnings for the first half of 2023. Since climbing to a 2022 high in March, the overall index has now fallen six of the past eight months,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.

In Heartland trade, the numbers were weak for November with export orders falling to 50.0 from 52.9 in October. Additionally, firms continue to report weak imports due to a weakening regional economy. The November reading dropped to a weak 39.3 but was up from 35.0 in October.


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