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While US manufacturing and trade languishes, the Heartland economy indicates slow growth.

Is the recession finally in the rear-view mirror?

July 5, 2023 – According to the Institute for Manufacturing’s (ISM) latest Report On Business, “Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the eighth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives.”

economic rebound

Nationwide, new export orders slid to 47.3 from May’s 5.0, while imports followed suit recording a 49.3 from 47.3 in May. Any number below 50 indicates contraction.

In the nation’s Heartland, international trade numbers were once again weak for the month with new export orders slumping to 42.3 from May’s 46.2. On the other hand, imports climbed to 58.3 from 52.8 in May, as reported by the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas.

Dr. Ernie Goss
Dr. Ernie Goss

“After flashing recession warning signals between November 2022 and January 2023, Creighton’s monthly survey of manufacturing supply managers over the past several months is now pointing to positive but slow growth with significantly lower inflationary pressures at the wholesale level,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.

The Heartland report is produced independently from the national ISM Report on Business. Both are based on surveys of supply executives from the previous month.


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